The Baltic Sea: the next geopolitical hotspot?
Watch us turn a news article into a future novel in real-time
Every time a reader posts a 5-star review, an angel gets its wings…
(Apologies to Frank Capra.)
We like this review of Command and Control for two reasons:
You might think that after a decade of co-writing, we’d treat another 5-star review with a jaded, been-there-done-that yawn—and you’d be wrong. Nothing makes us happier than connecting with a reader.
It perfectly captures what we try to do with our writing: Extrapolate today’s events into tomorrow’s headlines in a way that feels authentic.
But how does that happen? How do we develop a current events story into a book-length idea for a novel?
Instead of an abstract discussion, let’s take a real-life example. Let’s look at how we might develop a recent article into a full-length novel.
“Drone-Equipped U.S. Marines Now Helping Protect Baltic Sea Submarine Cables” was published in The War Zone last February. The first line immediately caught our attention:
About 40 drone-equipped U.S. Marines have been sent to Finland to join NATO’s Baltic Sentry effort to protect undersea cables in the wake of several instances of suspected sabotage…
Sounds pretty banal, eh? Not to us. This single article has all the elements of a Bruns-Olson novel. Let us count the ways:
The best way to test technology is in the field
They’re not just Marines, they’re “drone-equipped” Marines. That immediately intrigues us. We’ve spilled a lot of (digital) ink on how the US military is racing to integrate drones into its war planning, and this is a real-life example.
Gray zone activities raise regional tensions
The subject of the article, a NATO mission, also offers an excellent entry point into the story. We could easily envision a “gray zone” attack in the Baltic Sea that sets off a chain of events.
Gray zone attacks are designed to intimidate and frustrate adversaries but avoid direct military conflict. When a Russian fishing vessel “accidentally on purpose” damages an undersea cable, that’s a gray zone attack.
The NATO Baltic Sentry mission was started at the beginning of 20251 in response to suspected sabotage of critical undersea cables between Finland and Estonia. This is a classic Chinese and Russian “gray zone” attack because, contrary to what most people think, more than 95% of intercontinental Internet traffic flows over submarine cables.
We did a deep dive on undersea cables in Counter Strike, our (fictional) account of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan.
Allies vs. Autocrats
Every novel in this genre needs a larger context or worldview in which to operate. For us, the theme that we have come back to in our novels is the escalating struggle between Allies and Autocrats.
Current political realities aside, one of America’s greatest strengths has historically been our strong relationships with our allies. For us, it is still the worldview that we adhere to.
Finland is a fascinating case study for us because it has historical resonance and is a current events story. Since World War II, Finland has maintained a neutral position vis-à-vis NATO. While they routinely trained with NATO, the country was not a NATO member and therefore not subject to the Article 5 mutual defense pledge.
Since Finland shares an 830-mile land border with Russia and fought the Winter War with their much larger neighbor, holding NATO at arm’s length was their way of showing Mr. Putin that they respected his boundaries.
Unfortunately, loyalty is not a two-way street with autocrats. After Mr. Putin started his Unnecessary War with Ukraine in February 2022, Finland and Sweden joined NATO, which also raises regional tensions.
According to the article, Baltic Sentry marks the first deployment of US Marines to Finland, a further sign of how serious the regional situation has become.
The Arctic is a hotspot for future conflicts
Every novel needs a compelling setting. An Army colonel is quoted in the article saying, “This is also a great opportunity for the Marines to hone their cold weather skills. The Arctic is a focus of NATO and the U.S.”
While it’s treated as a throwaway line in the article, it’s not. Thanks to climate change, the Arctic is a hotspot for future conflicts with both Russia and China centerstage again.
The Northern Sea Route (NSR) connects Asia and Europe by sending shipping through the Arctic. Melting arctic ice is making the NSR more navigable for longer periods during the year.
The savings are considerable: the NSR is about 40% shorter than the Suez Canal route. Also, the northern route is more secure at the moment because of the Houthis attacks in the Red Sea.
And who benefits from this global shift in trade?
Russia has claimed that the NSR lies within its territorial waters, giving it exclusive rights to develop the area and to patrol ships. The United States and other powers have disputed this claim…2
This aspect of the novel pretty much writes itself. If you thought we were done with Russia as a future villain, think again.
Putting it all together
For us, the idea embodied in this article has all the makings of a compelling novel.
When a US Marine <character>, on deployment in Finland <setting> stops a Russian fishing trawler from cutting an undersea cable between Finland and Estonia, <event> he realizes that he’s interrupted the first stage of a Russian invasion into the Baltics.
Get Don Riley on the phone. Stat!
SITREP - this is what’s going on in our world
JR will deliver a briefing on the US Intelligence Community at Mill City Commons in Minneapolis on July 17th. We will sell and sign books afterwards.
Line of Succession comes out on September 16th. Question: what would happen if an autocratic Russian President was assassinated? Answer: Nobody knows…
Pilsners & Plotlines, a 10th anniversary of the Bruns-Olson co-writing partnership, is planned for September 25th. You’re all invited!
Weapons Free, the first novel in our new series, went to our editor last week. Planning for Book 2 starts next week…
Be happy. Stay healthy. Read (or listen to) a book.
As always, thanks for being a supporter –
David & JR, AKA the Two Navy Guys
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According to the internet, the US is still participating in this NATO operation.
https://www.thearcticinstitute.org/geopolitical-implications-arctic-shipping-lanes/
I am all for a Finland-Drones-Arctic-Cables storyline! For historical background reading, I recommend War Below Zero by Bernt Balchen.
Thanks for the reference matl. Finland has been a go-to location for us bc JR was stationed there as naval attache as his last tour in the Navy.